New research from SuperCalc Pro suggests ASFA’s widely used retirement lump sum benchmarks may be materially understating what couples need if they stop work before Age Pension eligibility.
This comes even as the industry body’s published figures remain conservative for Australians retiring at 67.
The modelling found a couple retiring at 60 would need $955,000 in super to retire “safely” in the worst 10 per cent of historical market periods on a 32-year horizon to age 92, compared with ASFA’s published age-67 comfortable retirement benchmark of $690,000.
That leaves a $265,000 shortfall in poor market conditions, which SuperCalc Pro identified as the headline risk in its analysis.
By contrast, the same modelling said ASFA’s benchmark remains meaningfully conservative when used as intended for retirees stopping work at 67.
On a like-for-like 25-year horizon from age 67 to 92, SuperCalc Pro found a single retiree targeting ASFA’s comfortable standard would need $310,000 in typical market conditions and $480,000 in the worst 10 per cent of historical periods, versus ASFA’s published lump sum target of $595,000.
For couples, the model estimated $380,000 at the median and $565,000 in tough markets, compared with ASFA’s $690,000 benchmark.
“ASFA’s figures are not wrong — they are genuinely conservative for age-67 retirees, sitting above even our tough-market estimate. What they don’t tell you is what happens when you retire earlier. ASFA’s $690,000 couples figure approximates the median requirement for age-60 retirement — not the safe target,” the report stated.
SuperCalc Pro said the distinction matters because ASFA’s published lump sums are built around a 25-year planning period from age 67 to 92, aligning with Age Pension eligibility.
The firm said many Australians appear to treat those numbers as broader retirement targets, even though retiring earlier extends the drawdown period and forces households to self-fund more years before pension support begins.
That effect was especially pronounced in the modelling for singles as a single person retiring at 60 and aiming for ASFA’s comfortable standard would need $525,000 in typical markets and $720,000 in the worst 10 per cent of historical sequences, compared with $310,000 and $480,000 respectively for someone retiring at 67.
SuperCalc Pro said that implied a $215,000 increase in required super for a typical early retiree simply from bringing retirement forward by seven years.
“Each year you retire before 67 is a year the Age Pension — which covers 58 per cent of the comfortable income target — must be replaced entirely from super. The $215,000 premium for retiring at 60 rather than 67 is not a planning curiosity. It is the cost of seven years without that offset.”
The analysis also challenged assumptions around lower-cost retirement targets.
SuperCalc Pro found the modest standard at age 67 was effectively “pension-funded” at the median for both singles and couples, reflecting how close the full Age Pension already sits to ASFA’s modest spending benchmark.
The research said the annual gap between the full Age Pension and the modest standard was just $4,620 for singles and $4,753 for couples.
Still, the firm warned that “pension-funded” should not be interpreted as meaning zero super is required.
Its modelling assumed homeowners with no other assessable assets outside super, meaning retirees with cash savings or other financial assets could receive less than the full pension under Centrelink’s deeming rules and assets test.
SuperCalc Pro said that could materially reduce the usefulness of the “pension-funded” assumption for people holding money outside super.
The methodology used every historical market sequence from 1928 to 2025, with each scenario tested across 66 to 73 valid start years depending on retirement age.
SuperCalc Pro said the modelling applied real, inflation-adjusted returns, annual fees and an Age Pension calculation updated for the current balance, rather than relying on a fixed average return assumption.
Meanwhile, the model found a couple retiring at 65 would need $490,000 in typical markets and $690,000 in the worst 10 per cent of historical periods to sustain ASFA’s comfortable standard to age 92.
That means ASFA’s $690,000 benchmark still aligned with a tougher-market outcome at 65, but was no longer conservative at 60, where the median requirement alone rose to $695,000 and the poor-market requirement climbed to $955,000.
In effect, the research suggests ASFA’s benchmark may be less a universal retirement target than a conservative age-67 reference point, with materially different outcomes once Australians try to leave the workforce earlier than the pension system assumes.
