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BNY Mellon predicts harmonious recovery
US-based institution Bank of New York Mellon (BNY Mellon) has firmed on a strengthening global recovery in 2010.
BNY Mellon chief economist Richard Hoey said the economic stimulus provided by governments across the world is likely to continue to have a "harmonic" effect moving through 2010.
"Macroeconomic policy is stimulative in nearly every country in the world and we expect this harmonic of simultaneous macroeconomic stimulus to generate sustained expansion in nearly every country in the world in 2010," he said.
Hoey pointed to the strength of the global and US economic recoveries, saying the International Monetary Fund had revised up its 2010 global growth forecast to about 3 per cent and that BNY Mellon believed the most likely outlook was that the global economy has begun a simultaneous worldwide expansion and that the global growth rate in 2010 should be closer to 4 per cent.
"The synchronisation of economic weakness in nearly all countries during the financial crisis intensified global economic weakness, but now the synchronisation of policy stimulus and recovery in nearly all countries should make a positive contribution to the strength of the recovery," he said.
Hoey predicted global expansion was likely to be led by emerging and developed economies with strong balance sheets as well as by some commodity exporting countries, while those countries suffering from a housing bust and a debt overhang should expand at a more tentative pace.
AUTHOR
Mike Taylor
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