The new industry super landscape will be one of large mega-funds and smaller specialist ones, according to respondents from a Buchan Consulting thought leadership series.
Super fund respondents saw the most likely outcome of current legislation as increasing consolidation in the industry.
There would be no room for medium-sized funds in the new industry super environment, with one respondent saying mid-tier funds would spend the next five years looking for merger partners.
The majority said corporate funds would continue to be pressured, particularly as modern awards under Fair Work Australia rolled out.
Respondents did not see the legislation as a threat to member retention. However, funds were bolstering retention programs in response to growth in the self-managed super sector and the rise of the big four banks in superannuation.
Some funds felt they had lessened the self-managed threat by offering similar investment options within the fund, and believed the sector's growth would start to plateau.
Most respondents, and particularly industry fund executives, highlighted the big four as principle threats.
They said as data became more streamlined, banks were seen as natural aggregators across most areas of consumer finance and had more funds to invest in marketing and cross-subsidisation.
The research house has offered a silver lining after super fund returns saw the end of a five-month streak last month.
A survey of almost 6,000 fund members has identified weakening retirement confidence, particularly among those under 55 years of age, signalling an opportunity for super funds to better engage with members on their retirement journey.
The funds have confirmed the signing of a successor fund transfer deed, moving closer to creating a new $29 billion entity.
A number of measures, including super on Paid Parental Leave, funding to recover unpaid super, and frameworks to encourage investment in the energy transition, have been welcomed by the superannuation industry.
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